The Lions are rested after a week off, but head north on the weekend to face a Swans side that has built a reputation for romping home in the latter stages of the game despite suffering a pair of painstaking three-point losses.
The Shepparton side’s 15.9 (99) to 14.12 (96) defeat against Mansfield on Saturday was tough, but as Seymour prepares to take on Jedd Wright’s charges at the Swannery, it’s worth investigating the last time the Swans were at home.
Seemingly coasting with the four points all but in hand at the final change, Murphy’s law seemed to trigger for the visitors as every possible variable appeared to fall the Shepparton Swans’ way against Euroa.
This was no dumb luck, though — it rarely is at any senior football level.
GVL Data, fans’ one-stop shop for all the answers on the Goulburn Valley League’s many twists and turns, explains the turnaround in simple terms.
Q4 breakdown — Swans surge v Euroa
Hit-outs to advantage
Shepparton: 6
Euroa: 0
Forward 50 entry efficiency
Shepparton: 60%
Euroa: 30%
Scores from turnovers
Shepparton: 4.1 (25)
Euroa: 0.1 (1)
Contested possessions
Shepparton: 36
Euroa: 28
Kicking efficiency
Shepparton: 69%
Euroa: 53%
Some of these numbers may not jump out as particularly drastic at first glance. An advantage of eight in contested possessions is hardly game-breaking on its own, much less enough to explain a four-goal turnaround.
What four of these five stats have in common, though, is that the Swans lost in all of these categories during the third term, bar hit-outs to advantage.
The ruck tandem of Mitch Bell and Mark Kovacevic assumed a huge tap lead in the final three quarters after failing to put a hit-out on target in the first term.
Kovacevic in particular shone, notching two clearances of his own in the final half hour alongside four contested possessions and one of the Swans’ desperately needed majors after a strong grab inside 50.
As for the whopping difference in scores from turnovers, this scoring source made up 100 per cent of the Swans’ final quarter tally. For Euroa’s part, its solitary behind also came from this source.
An advantage in rebound 50s (10-6) contributed to the Swans’ offensive generation, with three of the four goals in that frenzy coming due to interceptions in their defensive arc.
At the end of the day, though, the hard takeaway for Wright’s side is that it still fell short on the day in the latter two categories, arguably two of the most important stats to lead in.
We’ve seen that the Swans can put it together for 30 minutes against a strongly-tipped side like Euroa, undersized forward line or otherwise.
So can Seymour curtail a likely late boom from the Swans? Find out on Saturday.
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