Payney’s Punt | Derby Day race meeting preview and tips

We set our sights on Saturday’s Derby Day at Flemington, headlined by the Group One Victoria Derby (2500m).

Expect them to race on a Good 4 track, with the weather conditions to be overcast and the rail in its true position.

Don’t let the lengthy spell fool you. The brainstrust behind this much-loved and successful (fact-check needed) column have been hitting the bookies where it hurts them most this spring.

Fingers crossed we can fill the piggy bank and retire young.

As always, if you are choosing to have a flutter this weekend, do so responsibly.

Race 1. 12.20pm - Carbine Club Stakes (1600m)

This is set up to be an interesting race to kick off the day’s action. The early money has come for top weight Brave Mead (1) who hasn’t missed the placings this prep and won its last start over 1400m. Was held up last start, but still managed to hit the line strong and edged clear in the final 50m. It’s hard to go past that form. Should land somewhere on the speed from barrier five. Kaizad (3) will look to lead and should be hard fit. Ran third to Brave Mead last start and expect another bold showing. Influential (5) broke maiden status last start in eye-catching fashion. JMac and Waller pairing is a tick. Heman (2) will need plenty of luck from the draw, but looks like one to relish the rise in trip. A big watch on Ersa (7) who has drawn well on the rails and should get the prime run on the pace behind the leaders. Is one of two runners in race to have experience over the mile and has a 2:1-1-0 record from past two runs and is hard fit. Faces a rise in class, but stable is flying at the moment.

Top tip: Brave Mead

Race 2. 1pm - Archer Stakes (2500m)

The last ticket into the Melbourne Cup here. The early speed should come from United Nations (5) and Kiwi runner Ladies Man (1). The former faded from the lead last start in the Caulfield Cup and finished 10th of 18. Has placed both times at this journey. Ladies Man won last start over the ditch and passed the post in style. Athabascan (3) found trouble and was held up last start in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. A 7:1-0-0 record on good ground. Has the ace hoop on board. Mostly Cloudy (4) has a terrific record on good ground and has a 3:1-0-1 record at this track/trip. Worked home well last start and must respect. Kalapour (2) comes in off consecutive placings, which consists the Group One Metropolitan. Ran third behind Cleveland, who won the Valley Gold Cup last start. Has drawn the rails and is racing well so goes on top.

Top tip: Kalapour

Race 3. 1.40pm - Begonia Belle Stakes (1100m)

Down the straight in the third and it shapes up to be a tricky race. Stick to those with form and experience down the straight. Should be a heap of early speed. Can see Aitch Two Oh (3) getting the lead with Linda Meech on board. Faded to finish one length off Lempicka (5) last start. Is third-up, has won third-up prior and should be fit. Hypothetical (8) finished second to Lempicka and has been racing strongly. Has a strong record over the trip and two placings in this grade. Commands respect. Rose Quartz (6) finished second last run and is third-up here. Has two placings from three attempts at this stage of the prep. The early speed should allow her to swoop over the top of them late. Dancing Alone (10) is a serious prospect. Her win last start was in slick time. This is a steep jump in class, but looks promising. Lempicka is flying, but the straight track record is a knock.

Top tip: Rose Quartz

Race 4. 2.20pm - Rising Fast Stakes (1200m)

We stick down the straight for race four. Lots of love for Triple Missile (5) and Spacewalk (7). The former returned to the races in strong fashion and finished second behind Star Patrol ― that looks the form race to follow. Has a 5:2-2-0 record when second-up and a 3:1-2-0 record at this track. Spacewalk looks primed here. Is racing well and is third-up here with a strong 3:1-1-0 record. Handles the straight track. We have leant on value runner C’est Magique (9). Wasn’t great last start over 1400m, but two runs back finished third behind Triple Missile and Star Patrol. That form stacks up. Has a 2:0-1-1 record over this track/trip. When last fourth-up in her prep she did finish second in last year’s Coolmore Stud Stakes. Query on dry ground and needs the track manager to leave the sprinklers on.

Top tip: C’est Magique (Best value)

Race 5. 3pm - Wakeful Stakes (2000m)

It was an easy watch last start if you backed Zardozi (1) and we are hoping that replicates this weekend. Won the Edward Manifold (1600m) at this track and looked to enjoy the rise in distance. Here’s hoping the rise to 2000m is another tick. Has got a classy 7:4-0-0 record and gets JMac on board. Yet to win or place on good ground. Harlow Mist (4) has drawn well and should find a comfortable ride from the barrier. Finished third last start after winning the Oaks Trial (1800m). Demands respect.

Top tip: Zardozi (Best of the day)

Race 6. 3.40pm - Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)

Should be an absolute belter of a Coolmore. Expect 15, 14 and Ozzmosis (11) to push forward with Veight (4) and Steparty (6) to race on the speed. Ozzmosis will be the one they need to track down. Has a 4:3-0-1 career record. Veight and Steparty drop in distance from the Caulfield Guineas, but have form down the straight. Steparty commands respect with a superb 6:5-0-1 record. Blinkers go on and looks a great place or each-way bet. King’s Gambit (5) is a fiery colt, but is racing superbly this prep. Has drawn well. Shinzo (1) and Cylinder (2) come down from Sydney and bring Everest form. Cylinder should find this easier racing back against same age and sex. Has two wins this campaign and expect another big showing.

Top tip: Cylinder (W), Steparty (P)

Race 7. 4.20pm - Victoria Derby (2500m)

The big one, the headline act. Looks like Verdad (2) pushes forward alongside 11 and 3. There should be enough speed in this race to fall into the hands of Riff Rocket (4) and Apulia (1). Riff Rocket didn’t have the right race tempo last start. Blew them away two runs back at this trip over 1800m. Has form on dry ground and gets the star hoop. Apulia was superb last weekend winning The Vase (2040m) and that has the colt back up. It was a great finish to win by two lengths ahead of short fav Verdad. Has drawn next to Riff Rocket and no doubt Mark Zahra will follow JMac. Should settle midfield and expect a strong showing down the straight. We like Air Assualt (3) at a price. Ran third behind Apulia last start and won two back. Can find easy lead.

Top tip: Riff Rocket

Race 8. 5pm - Empire Rose Stakes (1600m)

Expect a quick pace out of the gates and we’re hoping that plays into the hands of two backmarkers. The pride of Warrnambool, Wishlor Lass (14) maps to take up front running alongside Alcohol Free (1). The former has built up a nice picket fence in recent starts and is unbeaten from past three. Symon Wilde’s star mare is built tough and she can hang on to win when challenged. Is progressive and will be fighting it out until the end. Alcohol Free comes into this from shorter races, but does have five placings over the mile. Princess Grace (2) is racing well and just missed last start when a short fav. Has a brilliant 8:3-1-3 record over the mile. Deserves attention. Atishu (4) was never really in it last start, but has been in good form. Foxy Frida (6) bounced back from a poor effort when fresh and ran third behind Wishlor Lass last start. Third-up form is strong, form at the mile even better 9:3-3-1. Has three wins and a placing at this track. Billy Egan has a hot strike-rate with this mare. Should be swooping late and nice each-way play.

Top tip: Wishlor Lass (W), Foxy Frida (Best roughie)

Race 9. 5.40pm - The Damien Oliver (1400m)

A wide-open race to finish. A couple of on speed runners who have drawn well and a few leaders who have drawn wide. Might play into Kalino (12) who returns from a let-up. Won at this track/trip in Listed company and has two wins and a placing from four cracks at 1400m. May need a bit of luck, but expect a strong finish down the straight. A good each-way play. Tamerlane (5) demands attention. Races well third-up 5:1-1-1 and at this distance 11:4-3-1. Won here last start over the journey when short fav. Here To Shock (10) will stalk Tamerlane and will be on the speed from inside draw. Has four wins at this trip and had been in good form. Respect.

Top tip: Kalino (EW)